Something is off about Jewel of Soul success Rate

Discussion in 'x10' started by sarkazmas, Jul 28, 2017.

  1. sarkazmas

    sarkazmas Senior Member

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    Hello,
    I have been using many jewels on items recently and I have noticed that Jewel of Soul success Rate with Luck is more like 80%, it seems that every 4th Jewel of Soul is failing where if it was 90% pretty much 1 out of 10 would fail wouldn't it? There's an easy way to test it, get 100 souls and couple items with luck, use souls on them and see how many times it will fail out of 100 - I am pretty sure its gonna be around 70/100 which would make it a 70%. Now I am not saying you are faking it's Rate, but perhaps there's something wrong with the success rate formulas?

    Chaos Machine seems to be misbehaving too, looks like +TCA and +TOL together have failed for me more times than just items without TCA and TOL ;)
     
  2. Gix

    Gix Innovate, Don't Imitate Founder

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    There's nothing wrong with the success rate formulas, what you see on website is exactly what we use in our files and the server files don't have any issues regarding that https://i.gyazo.com/a375846e009b338cae07b2b8cbbba70d.png. Also no, 90% does not guarantee that 1 out of 10 would fail because you're forgetting the most important thing and that is mathematical probability.

    You can read more about probability at https://www.quora.com/If-an-event-h...hy-is-it-not-guaranteed-to-happen-in-10-tries
     
  3. sarkazmas

    sarkazmas Senior Member

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    1/10 was just an example, but I have used way many more souls, specially when vault is full and you have half inventory of souls and you just decide you have too many souls and start upping random items with just soul, then u can see that actually 1/4 fails most of the time so if we multiply it by 1000 that makes it 1000/4000 fails which is only 75% rate then. It's just that the rate seems way too off of what it should be. If you try and do both tests on different server files based sever you will notice that it actually differs so which means one of them is just using wrong formula :)

    Does anybody feel me? :D
     
  4. Gix

    Gix Innovate, Don't Imitate Founder

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    I know it's an example but the same principle applies. There are many servers using IGCN files and if there was anything wrong with this it would have been reported long time ago, which is not the case. Regardless of the server files (so not just IGCN but other server files as well) probability and luck shall always be part of the success rate, unless it's set to 100%.
     
  5. sarkazmas

    sarkazmas Senior Member

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    I am pretty sure that the 10% Success rate would be more accurate than the 90% :)
     
  6. Gix

    Gix Innovate, Don't Imitate Founder

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    Eh, no way. The mathematic algorithm is the same for all server files, regardless if coding has been done in C++, C# or ASM. You can get in touch with our server files developers and ask them yourself in case you want a more direct source. Here is a MU trick though (known for ages): keep the jewel over the item for a few seconds before inserting it, rather than going into frenzy mode and insert jewel after jewel. Why this "broscience" is know to be effective? No idea, I'm suspecting that it gives the function more time to calculate the probability but it's just "broscience" after all.

    EDIT: Just for the sake of conversation I've set a 10% soul success rate on the test server and it's failing a lot so it doesn't uses inverted values but a gradual scale meaning the higher the value, the higher the chance of succeeding (which is how it should work) hence MAX value is 100%.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2017
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  7. sarkazmas

    sarkazmas Senior Member

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    It's just insane jsut failed 2/3 souls it is not a bad luck mate, it seriously is something wrong.