Chaos Machine (It's like gambling, but better)

Do you hate when your chaos machine enhancement fails? Well in this guide I will tell you how to increase your chances of success by using probability to your advantage. (My sign up dates maybe not that long ago but I am very experienced at Mu, don't let it fool you.)

Please note that all items used in this thread have luck. and make sure you READ the entire passage. Skimming will only lead to the unnecessary risk of failing your items...

Whats the first thing you think when I tell you I'm going to try to take my +9 staff (with luck) and go straight to +13 non stop... You think, well it "was" a nice staff. do you know why you might think such things? Because the probability of going up +4 in a row is improbable (not impossible). Well I'm going to teach you (or try to teach you) how to cheat the nasty Chaos Machine.

Statistics is a field laughed at when its described as a mathematical teaching because its based on probability and not an exact answer. (Its just an educated guess)

Now when something says it has a 75% chance to succeed what does that tell you? That 3 out of 4 are on average what succeeds. Remember that 3 out of 4 is the same percentage as 6 out of 8. So say you try to upgrade an item with only Souls(still 75% chance of succession just like Chaos Machine to +10) and fail your first try. You failed once so the chances of failing again are a lot lower. Because now u have failed 1 out of 4 (25%) so technically the next 3 should succeed. Time to go to the Chaos Machine, *Ding* you just +10 an item that was already +9 because the odds were for you. The actual percent of failing 75% 2 times in a row is 12.5%. (About just as often as failing a chaos fruit)

Ok theres +10 now onto +11.... Take a breath. This is where it gets tricky. Because the Mu Creators decided to drop 5% to +11, now you have 70% chance to succeed to +11. Scary stuff... ok you try to soul your crap item. You succeed a few to many times before u fail so you go again. ... succeed... fail... cool you crap item is now a crap item +0. ALRIGHT Chaos Machine time (Why you ask, because after succeeding a few more times you failed again.... Thats why. Remember your crap item has 75% chance and +11 is a 70% chance. This raises your chance to fail 2 times in a row a significant amount. It has now increased to 23%. Now I caution you 23% might not seem like a lot compared to the 30% chance to fail it was before. But it's still risky. *Ding* +11 . Since the +12 an +13 does not decrease in percentage you repeat the same process with the same odds. But if you're still scared. Let your crap item fail 2 times in a row... Failing 75% 2 times in a row will pretty much make you +12 or 13 a sure thing. (about 14% like +10 was)


Now I'm not saying go crazy with the Chaos Machine because even I still fail here and there, but my successions have increased greatly adopting this method. and another thing if you succeed 9 times and then fail...Then you just succeed 9/10 so another failure is likely to happen...make sure your successions and failures are pretty tightly nit, like succeed 2 then fail then succeed 3 and fail, then succeed once and fail.. This tightly nit sequence is ideal for this method (or should I say necessary) you succeed 9 times or even 8 in a row, its time to stop and let somebody else fail their item and try again tomorrow.

The Chaos Machine no matter how hard you calculate can be extremely unpredictable, I will take no blame for you failing a bunch of items because that just tells me that you didn't completely understand how this works, or you were just being careless. Keep in mind just because it's a lower chance, you just might win the lottery, I've had 4 fails in a row streak once. I wasn't very happy (improbable not Impossible). I would also love to hear positive feedback of this method working for you.

 

i should try it altho it requires alot of jwls, souls

 

But the payoff could be more then that of the cost.
A lot more if you think about it.

 

You should also switch character before attempting any combination.Apparently,this increases your chances of succeeding in upgrading an item.

 

ofc you never know. I made my bk wings lvl 3 with 3% success.

For the last 3 weeks or so the goblin ate 900 of my jwls and always failed to make wings with much higher success rate.

Just 1 thing i noticed. if you buy or take condor stone from a guild m8 or some1 else the goblin gives wings( that happened 2 times out of 2 tries).

 

ive got my own techniques too...
mine has a success rate 0f 90%..
hehehe...

maybe u notice all my freakingcrappy items are alomst +13^^
hehehe...
but u got a nice explanation there...

maybe u can tell me some ideas on how to be lucky in putting yellow options too..
hehehe...

 

There're no methods It's just damn script-a-like, which is something like "Succes; True; False", and you either get true, or false

 

MAKE SOME RETUALS before combining and pray to all GODS you know

 

SAYINGS " Wish you all the LUck"

 

..i've been seeing with the goblin lately and he told me that there is no technique and all goblin wants is to bribe him with a goblin-chick. Seriously, i've been trying out all the "methods" mentioned above on how to be successful with the chaos machine and i havent seen any methodology that gives u a higher guarantee of success. I even failed making BC and DS tickets... Like teo said, it's just a matter of luck.


.. i just have one suggestion: avoid using the machine when the server is lag.

 

Chaos machine....a very good rate has when i make wings lvl 3 with a fire blade that has no edr or id2% option.I tell you this because i had make 12 wings lvl 3 for bk in 1 week.But....they all gone.

P.S. Goblin loves me ))

 

everytime i mix in this eerie chaos machine, I eat some pills (my doctor ordered me to swallow 1-2 pills before trying to upgrade an item to +10 - +13). it helps a lot more than praying to god. i'm an atheist anyway x]

conclusion: eat a pill everytime you do gambling with a friggin' chaos machine. your chance of success grows significantly.

 

i upgraded my bk wings to +13 from +11 all in a row with no luck on them

 

is there any chance to bribe the goblin? to too him and sell anything to the goblin that he wants like a piece of shiny silver used in hellboy:the golden army

 

I upgraded my dark wings from +0 to +12 in a row, and next day to +13 (without luck). but previously, i failed twice on upgrading other dark wings...

 

Like Usual Goblin Hates me the most muahahah

 

chaos machine is the thing I love the most in MU online x]

just remember to eat pills before mixing, or the things may take a turn for the worst

 

let me make those items of yours bro...
hehe...

 

The Chaos Machine is the biggest thing in the muonline game.

Even at 100% , the combine chance can fail. So ask the koreean people how come 100% can fail )))

That Goblin is the best thief ever seen. He can steal u and nothing can be done ))))))

 

mhm... this method of yours does not work. nothing changes if you fail 10 times and try creating 3rd wings